Grand Rounds January 26, 2024: Advancing the Safe, Effective and Equitable Use of AI in Healthcare (Mark Sendak, MD, MPP; Suresh Balu, MD, MBA)

Speakers

Mark Sendak, MD, MPP
Population Health & Data Science lead
Duke Institute for Health Innovation (DIHI)

Suresh Balu, MD, MBA
Director, Duke Institute for Health Innovation (DIHI)
Associate Dean, Innovation and Partnership
Duke School of Medicine

Keywords

AI, ML, health equity

Key Points

  • The Duke Institute for Health Innovation’s (DIHI) mission is to catalyze transformative innovation in health and healthcare through high-impact research, leadership development and workforce training and the cultivation of a community of entrepreneurship.
  • DIHI approaches this work through four pillars of innovation: implementation and health delivery science, health technology innovation, leadership and workforce development, and best practices development and dissemination.
  • In 2021, DIHI started a Health AI Partnership to empower healthcare professionals to use AI effectively, safely, and equitably through community-informed up-to-date standards. We have continued to see the digital divide, where a small number of teams have expertise. Through this partnership, we are trying to build those skills in low resource settings and build a community of practice.
  • The Health AI Partnership started with 7 organization partners and has expanded to about 20 organizations. The main deliverables for the first phase of the project were developing standard key decision points for the AI product lifecycle and developing the Health Equity Across the AI Lifecycle (HEAAL) Framework.
  • There are 8 key decision points in the AI product lifecycle: identify and prioritize a problem; evaluate AI as a viable component of the solution; develop measures of outcomes and success of the AI product; design a new optimal workflow to facilitate integration; evaluate pre-integration safety and effectiveness of the AI product; execute change management, workflow integration, and scaling strategy; monitor and maintain the AI product; and update or decommission the AI product.
  • The first key decision point is procurement, which begins with identifying a problem and ends with allocation of resources to either build or buy an AI product or solution.
  • Key decision point 1 is procurement. Frontline staff have to have buy-in to submit a proposal so organizational resources can be used to sustain the innovation. Align frontline staff and organizational leaders – create alignment throughout project selection.
  • The second key decision point is development and adaptation, which is either building or adapting an external solution for internal clinical use. The first step is to develop measures of success, the second step is designing the workflow, and the third step is evaluating pre-integration safety and effectiveness before a solution is put into clinical use.
  • The next key decision point is clinical integration. DIHI built a modular infrastructure to support many projects via a flexible data pipeline technology infrastructure that started with one model and now includes dozens of models. The final key decision point is lifecycle management, which includes monitoring and maintaining the AI product and updating or decommissioning the product.
  • The Health AI Partnership held a workshop that examined how to assess the potential future impact of a new AI solution on health inequities. The discussion resulted in five assessment domains to be evaluated across the span of the AI adoption process: accountability, fairness, fitness for purpose, reliability and validity, and transparency.

Learn more

Health AI Partnership

Duke Institute for Health Innovation

Discussion Themes

-Can you talk about how DIHI/Health AI Partnership go about with the challenges in medical AI adoption outside of academic medical centers? There is a massive inequity and teams like DIHI are very rare. The next phase of work is building out a practice network in building AI capabilities. It will be a massive undertaking. We have a small philanthropic gift to get started. There is a need for support of infrastructure to bring AI partnerships to low resource settings.

How do you get reliable information and data for care that is received outside of Duke? How do you mitigate bias because of incomplete data? For the CKD example, we combined data from Duke and claims data.

 

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Grand Rounds January 19, 2024: Why Are Imaging RCTs Different? Lessons From Chest Pain Evaluation Trials (Pamela S. Douglas, MD, MACC, FASE, FAHA)

Speaker

Pamela S. Douglas, MD, MACC, FASE, FAHA
Ursula Geller Professor of Research in Cardiovascular Diseases
Duke Clinical Research Institute – Duke University
Past President, American College of Cardiology
Past President, American Society of Echocardiography

Keywords

Chest Pain, Cardiovascular Imaging, Coronary Artery Disease

Key Points

  • Imaging has transformed cardiology and many other fields. In 2024, despite several large randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing different evaluation approaches there is no universal consensus on initial imaging strategies, who to test and how; there are ongoing concerns about over imaging lowest risk patients but there is no consensus on testing deferral pathways; and new imaging technologies may offer value but are untested.
  • Similar to most types of trials, there are pros and cons to both pragmatic and explanatory designs in imaging trials. Feasibility and generalizability affect design choices including inclusion/exclusion criteria, flexibility of imaging intervention being tested, guidance/control of subsequent care after imaging, and endpoints and outcomes.
  • People with angina-like symptoms are often not patients with a disease. Most do not have obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD), but a few are very high risk. There is a potential for over testing with significant false positive rate and potential for missed diagnosis with stress imaging.
  • RCT design will vary depending on which CAD manifestation(s) are reflected in the information provided by the imaging test being studied, which affects the treatment target(s) being evaluated in a therapeutic trial.
  • There are many imaging findings that are important for optimal care. There is no single CAD phenotype that can be targeted diagnostically or therapeutically. Imaging strategies must be multidimensional or account for this heterogeneity.
  • There are considerations for the flexibility of the intervention. When we evaluate imaging strategies for chest pain, is “usual testing” the appropriate comparator? Coronary CT angiography (CTA) may be the preferred test. Researchers also need to ask what is the optimal CTA intervention and should downstream care be required?
  • What are appropriate endpoints for imaging RCTs and what events are we trying to avoid? Angina may not effectively discriminate between strategies. Intermediate endpoints such as diagnostic and therapeutic thinking are useful with impact on treatment being a major determinant of long-term value. Process of care/efficiency measures are important. Costs are rarely a significant factor in comparing different testing approaches.

 

Discussion Themes

-Why aren’t payors more willing to fund these trials? I have not seen a payor fund a trial in this space. There has only been a hand full of trials. They are trying to follow the guidelines for symptoms and disease. The tests are so common in aggregate it is a big expense.

What is the sensitivity of portable AI ECHO devices? They are pretty good. We think about it as a screening tool to see if a patient needs an intervention.

 

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Grand Rounds January 12, 2024: Design and Implementation of a Weighted Lottery to Equitably Allocate Scarce Covid-19 Resources (Erin K. McCreary, PharmD, BCIDP)

Speaker

Erin K. McCreary, PharmD, BCIDP
Director of Infectious Diseases Improvement and Clinical Research Innovation, UPMC
Clinical Assistant Professor of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh
President-Elect, Society of Infectious Diseases Pharmacists (SIDP)

Keywords

COVID-19, therapeutics, health equity, pragmatic clinical trial

Key Points

  • In April 2020, UPMC established a COVID Therapeutics Committee to determine a process for allocating experimental COVID-19 therapies. UPMC did not allow patients to receive experimental COVID-19 therapies outside of the context of a clinical trial and used the REMAP-CAP platform, a global pragmatic adaptive trial platform, in all clinic sites.  Any patient admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 completed a COVID intake form in their admission record, and if they opted to learn about experimental therapies, a FaceTime call was set up with a research coordinator.
  • The COVID Therapeutics Committee worked with the state health department to develop a policy for fair allocation of scarce medications to treat COVID-19. The guiding principles of the policy were developed to safeguard the public’s health by allocating scarce treatments to maximize community benefit; to lessen the impact of social inequities, to ensure that no patient is refused access to treatment based on age, disability, religion, race, ethnicity, national origin, immigration status, gender, perceived quality of life, sexual orientation, or gender identify; and to ensure that all patients receive individualized assessments by clinicians based on the best available medical evidence.
  • The first drug that used the new process was Remdesivir in May 2020. UPMC set clear criteria based on the published data at the time for who could and could not receive Remdesivir. Setting clear inclusion/exclusion criteria based on highest level clinical evidence is crucial.
  • UPMC established weighted factors for the Remdesivir lottery that were established by the ethics and clinical committee. Criteria included essential workers (25% increased odds of drug allocation), patients with an area of deprivation index score 80-100 (25% increased odds), end-of-life prognosis, defined as greater than 50% chance of death within one year from underlying conditions (50% decreased odds). The criteria were updated in June 2020 when it was determined that Remdesivir was safe for pregnant people, increasing odds because 2 lives could be saved.
  • The COVID Therapeutics Committee created communication materials to be transparent and to get buy-in. The committee worked with communications specialists who partnered with palliative care providers and others to draft FAQs and other communication guidance for clinician teams who were having conversations about drug allocations with patients and families.
  • There was a daily process for the Remdesivir lottery. Every patient with COVID-19 was automatically considered. Patients were screened by local teams at each site. If a patient was part of the daily allocation, the committee informed the local team by email and the drug was shipped from a central location to the local site.
  • The first monoclonal antibody (mABs) treatment for treatment of COVID-19 was approved in November 2020. UPMC built upon the success of the Remdesivir lottery and in December 2020, UPMC began infusing monoclonal antibodies across 45 UPMC locations. Clinicians wrote a consult for mABs and the pharmacy delivered whichever mAB that was available.
  • When Evusheld was approved in December 2021 a similar weighted lottery process was put into place. All eligible patients were gathered from data warehouse and manual EHR entry. The therapeutics and ethics committees grouped immunocompromised patients into 3 risk categories, with a lottery for those patients in group 1 (highest risk). Patients from disadvantaged communities had increased odds of receiving treatment. The lottery was repeated weekly with notification of allocation.
  • Through this work, UPMC learned that allocation does not actually mean receiving the drug. The lottery structurally improved allocation. Association of lottery with underrepresented racial and ethnic groups other than Black was not evaluated due to small numbers. Factors associated with not receiving drug need further explored

 

Learn More

Read more in JAMA Network.

Discussion Themes

-The allocation didn’t match the likelihood that an individual would receive the drug. Any hypothesis for why this occurred? We have a few hypotheses. We went through every iteration of how do you contact patients. Only about 40% of our patients are enrolled in My UPMC. We know there is a digital gap in disadvantaged patients and elderly patients. Many patients did not answer the phone. There were also patients who wanted to talk to their doctor, and they needed time to pull in their provider.

 

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Grand Rounds Biostatistics Series January 5, 2024: Methods for Handling Missing Data in Cluster Randomized Trials (Rui Wang, PhD; Moderator: Fan Li, PhD)

Speaker

Speaker: Rui Wang, PhD
Associate Professor of Population Medicine and Associate Professor in the Department of Biostatistics, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute and Harvard Medical School

Moderator: Fan Li, PhD
Assistant Professor of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health

Keywords

Cluster-randomized; Intervention; Missingness; Outcomes

Key Points

  • Cluster randomized trials are trials in which clusters of individuals rather than independent individuals are randomly allocated to intervention groups, and outcomes are measured for each individual in the cluster.
  • Sometimes there is missingness in the outcome. Significant work has been done on individual level missingness, where there is an observed outcome for each cluster, but an outcome is missing for one individual. Less work focuses on cluster level missingness, where the outcome is missing for an entire cluster of individuals, but researchers have made some progress in analyzing these cases.
  • For missing completed at random (MCAR) models, the missing process will be independent of all the covariate treatments and outcomes so that the observed data actually represent the underlying population you’re making an inference about. Most of an analysis can proceed using complete data, so this isn’t an issue. Unfortunately, this can rarely happen, so people consider using the missing at random (MAR) model, which models the missingness process using the observed data in cluster randomized trials.
  • This research addresses two challenges – outcomes can be missing, and data for individuals within the same cluster are likely to be correlated. The missing data framework is focused on making inferences about aspects of the distribution of the full data based on the observed data. To do this, two approaches are commonly used: 1) mixed effect models via maximum likelihood estimation; and 2) population average models fitted with generalized estimating equation (GEE) approaches.
  • The GEE estimator focuses on population average effects rather than cluster specific effects, requires fewer parametric assumptions, and is robust to misspecification of the correlation structure. In the presence of missing data, if data are MCAR, the standard GEE estimator based on complete data is consistent. However, when data are MAR, the standard GEE estimator based on complete data may provide biased estimates. Under this assumption, some possible solutions are the multiple imputation, inverse probability weighting, augmented inverse probability weighting, and a “multiply robust” version of the augmented inverse probability weighting solution. The “multiply robust” version also works for missingness of an entire cluster.
  • When thinking about using the GEE, you might run into the following computational challenges with fitting GEEs: second-order GEEs include an extra set of estimating equations, involving all possible pairs of observations; the computing complexity increases quadratically as the cluster sizes increase; and solving GEEs with large cluster sizes becomes difficult due to both convergence and memory allocation issues. Stochastic algorithms, which specify using only a subsample at each iteration, can circumvent these computational issues.
  • In summary, in the multilevel case, there can be either class level or individual level missingness. If it’s class level missingness and is MCAR, use the individual level missingness mechanism. If it’s also MCAR, then proceed with complete case analysis. If not, the GEE estimator in the form that fits the situation best is a plausible solution. For class level cases with outcomes MAR, use the “multiply robust” version of the GEE estimator to proceed with analysis.

 

Discussion Themes

-If the cluster size is small, we may have a propensity score estimated at zero or one. How does the EM algorithm help in this context? The EM doesn’t help if the number of clusters is small. When you fit the lambda at the probability of missingness, that doesn’t help with the extreme waste problem. When we fit different model, we would look at the tool missing, the gamma parameter, or maybe the AGA parameter depending on the model and whether the individual outcome is missing or not. Across these situations, treating certain aspects at zero would cause these examples not to be what we’re targeting. The EM algorithm helps with that problem. However, if you don’t have enough data, the estimation is not going to be stable.

-One cautionary note when creating the propensity weights using logistic regression is that there’s issues with collapsibility. It’s difficult to gauge what kind of bias this introduces. It might be better to use a marginal based, binary indicator model. That’s a great point. When you have a non-identity link, you get that non-collapsibility issue so that other models can be better in terms of estimating. At the end, we just need a model for predicting the probability of the observed. It’s important to note that these approaches are not wedded to logistic regression, as long as we have a sensible model for the missingness.

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Grand Rounds December 15, 2023: Diversifying Clinical Trials: A Path Forward (Roxana Mehran, MD, FACC, FAHA, MSCAI, FESC)

Speaker

Roxana Mehran, MD, FACC, FAHA, MSCAI, FESC
Mount Sinai Endowed Professor of Cardiovascular Clinical Research and Outcomes
Professor of Medicine (Cardiology), and Population Health Science and Policy
Director, Interventional Cardiovascular Research and Clinical Trials
Director, Women’s Heart and Vascular Center at Mount Sinai Heart
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai 

Keywords

Cardiovascular Health, Interventional Cardiovascular Research, Diversity, Health Disparities

Key Points

  • There are important gender disparities in cardiovascular health. Globally cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevalence had decreased between 1990 and 2010, but it has slightly increased since 2010.
  • CVD is the leading cause of mortality in women. The median survival time after a first myocardial infarction (MI) for adults 45 years and older is 8.2 years for males and 5.5 years for females at age 45 years or older. Of those who have had a first MI, the percentage with a recurrent MI or fatal CHD within 5 years is 17% of males and 21% of females age 45 years or older. Hospital admissions with acute coronary syndrome in women younger than 55 years increased 21% in 1995-1999 and 31% in 2010-2014.
  • There are also ethnic and racial disparities. By 2045, more than 50% of the population in the U.S. is expected to be other than non-Hispanic white. It is important to note when you look at the ARIC surveillance data, there is consistently higher risk in black females and males across all ages.
  • Yet enrollment of ethnic minorities in NIH clinical trials and for trials studying approved devices and drugs remains low.
  • Diversity in clinical trials is important for generalizability of results, to provide equal opportunities, practice precision medicine, tailor practical guidelines, improve public health outcomes, detect potential differences in safety and efficacy, and to address health disparities.
  • There are several strategies that will help increase diversity in CVD trials. First, increasing diversity among trial participants must be a top priority in order to address health disparities and allow for optimal diagnosis and management of CVD in all.
  • Increasing diversity in trial leadership is one of the most important strategies to increase diversity among RCT participants.
  • Further efforts are urgently needed to increase diversity in the cardiology workforce, which will improve clinical trial diversity and cardiovascular health for all.
  • Approaches from the whole scientific community to tackle the inequality in workforce, trial leadership and trial participants have to be developed.

 

Discussion Themes

-What have been the challenges in developing and identifying people interested in working in clinical trials? Many high school and college students are moving away from the sciences. We have to change how we are practicing. The biggest barrier for CV medicine is the lack of women leaders in CV. Trainees don’t see a way forward. Work-life balance is a very important issue and will be for the next generation of women and men.

-Have you looked at the differential recruitment approaches between provider led and EHR-led approaches? Can we use blinded HER-led recruitment efforts to identify participants? This is a really important point because we know that providers have bias, and it is the providers who do not approach women for enrollment.

What about women who are excluded because they are pregnant or planning to be pregnant? It is an excellent question. With the current ability to become pregnant this can affect women up to the age of 50. These are really excluding many women on the basis of this exclusion. We need to think about removing some of this and evaluate.

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Grand Rounds December 8, 2023: A Pragmatic Randomized Trial of the Jumpstart Intervention to Promote Communication about Goals of Care for Hospitalized Patients with Serious Illness (Ruth Engelberg, PhD; Erin Kross, MD; Robert Lee, MD, MS)

Speakers

Ruth Engelberg, PhD
Research Professor of Medicine
Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine
University of Washington

Erin Kross, MD
Associate Professor of Medicine,
Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine
University of Washington

Robert Lee, MD, MS
Assistant Professor of Medicine
Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine
University of Washington

Keywords

Jumpstart, Advanced Planning, Goals of Care

Key Points

  • Researchers know that goals of care discussions between patients and clinicians are associated with important patient and family outcomes. And yet goals of care discussions and their documentation remain a shortcoming in many health systems.
  • The Jumpstart intervention is a communication-priming intervention. It has been studied in prior contexts in a PCORI trial and a pilot inpatient trial where the intervention increased goals of care discussions from 8% to 21%.
  • For the Jumpstart trial, a number of refinements were made to make it more pragmatic, including the creation of Jumpstart using EHR data rather than patient or family member surveys, delivering the intervention to clinicians only, automated population of Jumpstart guide fields, and automated Jumpstart delivery to clinicians by email.
  • The research question Jumpstart set out to answer is can a patient-specific, clinician-facing communication priming intervention with discussion prompts effectively promote goals of care discussions between clinicians and hospitalized older adults with serious illness?
  • Jumpstart is a pragmatic randomized trial of Jumpstart compared to usual care. It utilized a waiver of consent; all eligible patients were randomized, and randomization was stratified by hospital and history of dementia at 3 hospitals in University of Washington system.
  • Patients who were eligible had been hospitalized at least 12 hours but no more than 96 hours, age 55 and older with at least one Dartmouth Atlas chronic condition, or they were age 80 or older. The Jumpstart Guide was delivered to members of the primary hospital team on day of randomization via a secure email with a reminder message via pager.
  • The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with EHR-documented goals of care discussion within 30 days of randomization. Goals of care discussions were defined as discussions about overarching goals for medical care but going beyond “just code status” (e.g. DNR/DNI). The goals of care discussions were identified by a natural language processing (NLP) called BERT and screened human abstraction.
  • The study team trained and validated the NLP model by adjudicating 2,500 notes, and compared human decisions with NLP decisions to come up with an assessment with how NLP preformed. In order to classify a patient with goals of care conversation, the study used the NLP to screen the records and pull out excerpts of EHR that had high probability to contain a goals of care conversation and then conducted a human review. EHR passages were adjudicated in pseudo-random order, blinded to patient ID.
  • Jumpstart also obtained secondary outcomes from the EHR, including ICU admissions, ED visits, palliative care consultation, ICU and hospital-free days, death and hospital readmission within 7 days of discharge
  • Among hospitalized older adults with serious illness, Jumpstart found that a pragmatic clinician-facing communication-priming intervention significantly improved documentation of goals of care discussions in the electronic health record, with a greater effect size in racially or ethnically minoritized patients.
  • Jumpstart provides evidence that a low-touch intervention can nudge clinicians to change behavior. Overall prevalence of goals of care discussions is low suggestions opportunity for improvement. Jumpstart may be useful in enhancing equity in serious illness communication among racially or ethnically minoritized patients.

Learn more

Read more in JAMA and a JAMA editorial.

Discussion Themes

-Within individual physicians, did you see an increase in goals of care discussions? We have not looked within clinician practices for documentation. In some previous trials we have randomized at the clinician level. What’s hard is that patients have a number of different physicians. When we sent out the jumpstart we sent it to the entire team, from interns to attendings. We don’t have much data on the overall effect on individual physicians behavior.

-Were you to do this again would you use BERT again or go in a different direction? BERT was state of the art in 2018 and out preformed all other NLPs at the time. The same family of deep learning models is still considered state of the art. The key thing with these models is that they have gotten bigger to accommodate the language. We could possibly take out the training phase.

What is the concern about prompt fatigue in these settings? It is something we are thinking about a lot in the outpatient trial. Clinicians could receive prompts on an almost daily basis. We are limiting it so clinicians can only receive prompts x times day.

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Grand Rounds December 1, 2023: Guidelines for Design and Analysis of Stepped-Wedge Trials (James P. Hughes, PhD)

Speaker

James P. Hughes, PhD
Professor Emeritus of Biostatistics, University of Washington

Keywords

Design, Analysis, Stepped-Wedge Trial

Key Points

  • Stepped-wedge design is typically run by clusters that are randomized. Each of the clusters receive the control and treatment, and each cluster is sequenced to the intervention at different times.
  • There are several key design considerations for stepped-wedge design, including defining the estimand or what are you trying to estimate in the analysis, the key sources of variation, and how outcome data will be collected.
  • How will the treatment effect the outcome? Magnitude of effect is a key power consideration. It is important to think about the variation in effect over exposure time. Classic analyses of stepped-wedge trials assume that the effect of the treatment occurs instantaneously once the intervention is applied and that the effect of the intervention is constant over exposure time. But this assumption may not be true in all studies or for all types of treatment.
  • A key question is what is the estimand and what is most scientifically meaningful? Classic stepped-wedge analyses assume an instantaneous treatment effect. What happens if you assume the treatment effect is immediate and constant, but it’s not? Researchers need to think very carefully about what is the possible exposure time curve and what is it the study is trying to estimate in the stepped-wedge trial?
  • An alternative approach to estimation in stepped-wedge trials compared to the standard immediate treatment approach is to use an exposure time indicator model, wherein researchers estimate a treatment effect for every exposure time. In this case the estimated treatment effect is going to be a weighted average of the exposure times.
  • Another issue to think about with stepped-wedge trials is potential sources of variation. For any cluster randomized trial, researchers are used to thinking about the cluster means, or how much variation you expect in the cluster means (the absence of treatment). For stepped-wedge trials there may be potential variation in treatment effect and variation in cluster means over time.
  • Key design recommendations for stepped-wedge trials: Don’t assume the intervention is immediate and constant (IT model) unless well-justified; if a transition period is planned, include data from the transition period; if the estimand is the effect at a point in time, maximize the number of observations at that exposure time; including more variance components in the power calculation reduces the possibility of an underpowered trial; and power calculations in SW trials can sometimes seem counterintuitive.
  • Key analysis recommendations for stepped-wedge trials: Fit flexible study time effect; avoid fitting IT model unless you are very confident that the intervention effect is immediate and constant; it is better to overfit than underfit random effects; use small sample correction if necessary.

Discussion Themes

-Most people have analyzed stepped-wedge designs with the immediate treatment model. Should they go back and analysis with a more flexible model? We are trying to assemble a large set of datasets to understand how often this issue occurs in practice. At this point it is an open question for how big of a practical problem this is.

-In the stepped-wedge design there are no clusters that are always treated or never treated. Do you have thoughts about adding these to a stepped-wedge design? Part of the issue is that the stepped-wedge concept arose from a need to provide the intervention to all clusters. If you had a cluster that was not treated it would probably improve your power but misses the point of the stepped-wedge design. There are other designs that work better in that instance, such as a parallel design.

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Grand Rounds November 17, 2023: Personalized Patient Data and Behavioral Nudges to Improve Adherence to Chronic Cardiovascular Medications: Results from the Nudge Study (Michael Ho, MD, PhD; Sheana Bull, PhD)

Speakers

Michael Ho, MD, PhD
University of Colorado

Sheana Bull, PhD
University of Colorado

Keywords

Nudge, NIH Collaboratory Trial, Cardiovascular, Adherence

Key Points

  • A nudge is a strategic reminder that can help people adopt healthy behaviors, using principles from behavioral economics and cognitive psychology to improve behavior commitments, communicate social norms, and narrative stories. The Nudge study wanted to find out if nudges could help patients improve medication adherence by promoting behavioral change through positive reinforcement.
  • The Year 1, UG3 Phase, aims were to develop and program a nudge message library using iterative N of 1 studies to optimize content for a range of diverse patients. The second aim was to conduct a pilot intervention to demonstrate feasibility of delivering the intervention and preliminary effects in a 3 healthcare systems. The idea was to engage the patient, providers, and healthcare system leaders to design, refine, and implement the pilot.
  • In Years 2-5 (UH3 Phase) the aims were to conduct and evaluate a pragmatic patient-level randomized intervention across 3 healthcare systems to improve adherence to chronic cardiovascular (CV) medications. The second aim was to evaluate the intervention effectiveness using a mixed methods approach and apply the RE-AIM (reach, effectiveness, adoption, implementation, and maintenance) framework.
  • The study recruited adult patients diagnosed with 1 or more cardiovascular condition of interest, prescribed at least 1 or more medication of interest, with a refill gap of at least 7 days. Patiens were excluded if they had neither a landline or cell phone, were enrolled in hospice or palliative care, were non-English or Spanish speaking, and residing out of the state of Colorado.
  • Three healthcare delivery systems participated in the study: UC Health Clinics, Denver Health, and VA Eastern Colorado HCS Clinics.
  • Nudge used an opt out approach, with IRB approval because it was a low-risk intervention and having patients consent on a large scale would be challenging and might bias the sample to more adherent patients. Nudge sent an opt-out packet with an information sheet, an opt-out sheet and a self-addressed stamped envelope. There was also an option to complete a survey to share reasons for opting out. There were 4 weeks to return the opt-out form, and there was a text opt-out option once the program started.
  • More than 13,000 patients were considered eligible for the UH3 trial and more than 9,500 were randomized in the 4 arms, with about 2,300 patients in each of the arms. The 4 arms were usual care, generic text message arm, optimized text message arm that used behavioral theories that aligned with “nudge,” and a fourth arm that used a chat bot.
  • All of the intervention arms had a significant influence on refills but there was no different between the intervention arms. Patients could text back with clinical questions or questions about the study. About 50% of participants responded with a question, and 9.2% responded with a question for a clinical pharmacist.
  • Nudge also deployed a text message and survey to participants to get a sense for patient satisfaction with feedback on the study and text messages. The response rate was low but in general there were high levels of satisfaction with the intervention. No concerns were raised about privacy concerns or confusion about the messages.
  • Lessons learned: The text message intervention improved medication refill adherence, the effectiveness was consistent regardless of the type of message delivered, and the differential impact of the intervention across some patient groups. The opt out approach is feasible and drop out rate was lower than expected. Patients were generally satisfied with text messages, and patients who were non-white and Hispanic were more likely to remain in the study. Text messages can be implemented as a low-cost intervention to improve medication refill adherence across different healthcare systems with disperate EHR systems.

Discussion Themes

-Do you think the results support a text message nudge in most clinical trials and what is the cost effectiveness of this? This is a low-cost strategy and would be a great option to use as one of multiple strategies to use in clinical trials. The nudge can be very generally defined, the timing of the message for this kind of intervention is important. It’s not clear that this messaging may not be sufficient for other types of behavior, like changing diet, but for this type of action it was sufficient.

-What was your IRB? Our IRB was the Colorado Multiple Institutional review board. Messages included PHI but the study followed the institutional security protocols that allowed the intervention to be approved.

How did the messages account for prescription dosage changes? Patients could reply with Done and the message reminders would stop. The study would then recalculate the gaps.

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Grand Rounds November 3, 2023: The Perils and Pitfalls of Complex Clustering in Pragmatic Trials (Jonathan Moyer, PhD; Moderator: Andrea Cook, PhD)

Speaker

Jonathan C. Moyer, PhD
Statistician, NIH Office of Disease Prevention

Moderator: Andrea J. Cook, PhD
Senior Biostatistics Investigator, Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute

Keywords

Individually randomized group treatments; Intervention; Randomization; Clinical trials

Key Points

  • In individually randomized trials (IRTs), individuals are randomized to either control or intervention arms. In Group- or cluster-randomized trials (GRTs), pre-existing groups are randomized to either control or intervention arms. Both trial types are common, but it’s important to note that observations are correlated before and after randomization.
  • In individually randomized group treatments (IRGTs), individuals are randomized to either control or intervention arms, similar to individually randomized trials, but there might be post randomization grouping or clustering in one or both conditions. In IRGT trials, individuals are randomly assigned to arms, but treatment is delivered in groups or through shared intervention agents.
  • Participants who are connected by group membership or share the same intervention agent will likely have correlated outcomes, which are often quantified using the interclass correlation (ICC), which reflects the extra variation attributable to group or shared agent. Failing to account for ICC is shown to inflate type I error rates in the context of GRTs. Similar type I error rate inflation is possible with IGRTs, but the potential impact of this correlation is acknowledged less frequently.
  • In this trial, the researchers were interested in three main data structures. The first is the fully nested structure in which agents are present in both arms and each agent interacts with participants in only one arm. The second is the partially nested structure in which agents are only present in one arm. The third is the crossed structure in which the same agents interact with participants in both arms.
  • The researchers also considered multiple membership structures. In a single membership, each participants interacts with one agent. In a multiple membership structure, a participant may interact with more than one intervention agent. Finally, in a single agent structure, there’s only one agent present per arm in the fully nested case or in the trial as a whole for the partially nested or crossed structures.
  • In multiple membership structures, random effects for agents are weighted, which reflects the proportion of treatment a participant receives from an agent. Expressions for ICC are more complicated with multiple membership structures, since the value of each ICC depends on the agent weights for ICCs found for pairs of agents.
  • In this trial, the researchers looked at five data generation mechanisms: fully nested, partially nested, crossed, crossed-interaction, and crossed-imbalanced. The results found type I error rates for multiple membership, single membership, single agent, and alternative analyses for each mechanism, in addition to power for each.
  • The results of this analysis suggest that crossed designs protect the type I error rate, allow flexibility in analytic models, and provide good power with sufficient sample size. However, there is a risk of contamination with crossed designs. For nested models, the analytic model should match the expected structure of the data, and naïve models should not be used. Since power in small studies is less adequate, a power analysis with realistic and data-based estimates is key.
  • Some limitations concluded from this research include that researchers only looked at continuous outcomes, rather than binary outcomes. Additionally, the number of participants for this analysis remained consistent, so it would be worthwhile to conduct future studies with variation in the number of participants per agent.

Discussion Themes

-It seems that any trial that involves an intervention that delivers the intervention through agents, people, or in a group formation you discussed that would be a large fraction of trials in public health and medicine. Are most of these trials being done incorrectly? Studies should probably plan how they are desired to be planned. For example, maybe you would expect to have one agent interact with the participants in a group. Then, as you are analyzing it, maybe as a secondary analysis, keep a record of who the participants are interacting with and see how much of an impact it has made. When trials are being planned, we assume there will be some loss to follow up. We account for that in our sample size calculations. If you think there’s a potential for, say multiple membership to arise, you might think of what exactly that mechanism is and the power calculations you do to account for that. I don’t think there are actually very many closed form formulas for the multi-membership case. I know if one recent resource for cross classification, but you could use simulation methods to analyze the setting that you think matches what is possible.  

-The lowest ICC used in this simulation study started at 0.05, which is pretty large. Why not use smaller ICCs? Generally speaking, the greater the ICC, the more closely the participants are interacting. In the case of individually randomized trials where the people are interacting with the same agent, for instance, the same surgeon or acupuncturist, the results are likely the be more strongly correlated in that setting. The smaller ICCs generally correspond to larger kind of structures like communities or neighborhoods. These ICCs were the ones that were more representative of what we saw in individually randomized group treatment trials as opposed to GRTs.

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#pctGR, @Collaboratory1

Grand Rounds October 27, 2023: Digital, Decentralized and Democratized: Lessons From The Yale PaxLC Trial (Harlan M. Krumholz, MD, SM)

Speaker

Harlan M. Krumholz, MD, SM
Harold H. Hines, Jr. Professor of Medicine
Department of Internal Medicine
Section of Cardiovascular Medicine
Yale University School of Medicine
Director, Yale-New Haven Hospital Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation

Keywords

Decentralized Trial, Digital Trial, Yale PaxLC Trial, Long COVID

Key Points

  • The PaxLC Trial is a decentralized Phase 2, 1:1 randomized double-blind superiority placebo-controlled study on non-hospitalized high symptomatic adult participants with Long Covid to determine the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of 15 days of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir compared with a Placebo/Ritonavir.
  • This talk describes the PaxLC Trial’s strategies to implement a digital, decentralized, and democratized approaches to multidisciplinary research that address the deficiencies of traditional research studies, which can tend to be hierarchical, siloed, slow, expensive, and inconvenient.
  • A key question for the study was how do we put the interest of the participants first and foremost and produce knowledge rapidly? Research can improve by simultaneously leveraging advances in technology and culture. Studies must be convenient, meaningful, respectful, efficient, rapid, and fair.
  • The research optimization requires partnership with participants, including involvement in study design and workflow, data collection and analysis, and data and results sharing. Participants should have access to investigators and the results of studies.
  • PaxLC brings together many innovations including online screening, digital medical record review, e-consent, home-delivery of medications, local clinical blood draws, home-based biospecimen collection, online diaries and surveys, digital medical record outcomes, and participant-centricity, and return of results. During the presentation, members from across the research team shared how PaxLC implemented all of these innovations through the course of the trial.

Discussion Themes

-What have you experienced on the scalability of the approaches you have taken, such as regulations and IRB? Is this knowledge generalizable to other similar trials? Using the local Yale IRB was an asset. We had to have the right people in the room to initiate communication with collaborators and their IRB representatives. The Yale IRB and Trusted Medical helped facilitate the other states and anything we need to take in account for recruitment. We will have a repository with Trusted Medical for future studies. We had to operate the trial with an institution that would allow zero risk. We had to come up with solutions.

-Can you comment on the decision to make the PROMIS scale the primary outcome? Does it capture most what matters to patients? We spent a lot of time discussing what would be the best primary outcome. Pfizer provided feedback. We wanted to measure a lot of stuff. We were familiar with the PROMIS scale and  felt PROMIS would capture whether people were feeling better. We wanted to say if this is working, people’s general health should improve.

How do you organize recruitment to ensure you have the diversity you want and how do you explain to people you are turning away? It’s a multipronged strategy. Be welcoming and be authentically committed to health equity and be worthy of the trust. One of the main reasons we turn people away is because they are taking a medication that does not work with Paxlovid. A lot of participants have worked with their physician to stop a drug so they can participate.

Tags

#pctGR, @Collaboratory1